THE APP BUBBLE BURST: an app market analysis

pHghost

Quite an interesting article: http://www.midiaresearch.com/blog/view/the-app-bubble-burst-the-coming-app-economy-correction.html

BigDave

interesting. I definitely would hope for the fall/shake up of the biggest apps in the market like clash of clans or candy crush to decline so that all that attention and money is given to more variation within the market.

Right now they stay alive through having optimized ARPU'S and the money to channel any traffic to their apps. But at some point everyone has seen it and has been there.
Lets hope this comes closer.

jigglybean

I really don't see much in to other companies analysis,especially when its compiled by a company pushing their own interests.

There's no doubt the App market will implode at some point, as the big publishing houses screw things up, like they did/doing with console and PC gaming. EA have already taken IAPs a step too far with Dungeon Keeper.

Having a single hit, or being a one hit wonder is what Rovio have done best, and sometimes I believe that 'if it aint broke, don't fix it'. When I worked for a UK publisher and developer, they are renowned for racing games but tried to put their fingers into other pies and it failed badly.

The App boom started thanks to the small indie sitting in his bedroom developing his app but much like with mainstream gaming, the big boys are now dominating everything and getting exposure is increasingly difficult.

If you can master that, you will get downloads.

The_Gamesalad_Guru

This will be like all things a thinning of the heard. There will be those who quit app developing and those who don't survive. Those who stay devoted and keep going though the hard times will survive and flourish. It's that way in every business. Just like the gold rush era. @Rp and Imake games because I enjoy the creative expression and we will keep making games no matter the metrics. We don't concern ourselves with the trends we just work on our ideas.

Lovejoy

@The_Gamesalad_Guru said:
This will be like all things a thinning of the heard. There will be those who quit app developing and those who don't survive. Those who stay devoted and keep going though the hard times will survive and flourish. It's that way in every business. Just like the gold rush era. Rp and Imake games because I enjoy the creative expression and we will keep making games no matter the metrics. We don't concern ourselves with the trends we just work on our ideas.

Cant say that i completely agree with your statement. This may be the case for you and your partner, but not for everyone else. Researching whats trending and keeping a good eye on whats going on is key to getting success in this market. One can not just make whatever and hope one day they will be noticed. Does it happen once in a while? yes it does, but it is certainly not a good business plan. I could understand if money isn't an issue or are well off from other means of work, but not for full time dev wanting to find success.

Edit: Not trying to start an argument. Maybe I'm misreading your post.

Tiny_Ideas

By creative expression it means a rip off of ice hockey. Still waiting for your latest game, (not your 100 ball rip off) but your battleship type game to show some creativity and original ideas. Other wise your statements don't hold much weight
Either way its been four years working as an indie and to me it feels like everyone moved from being able to create original ideas and concepts to making simple spin offs of other popular ideas.
Its only getting tougher because of software like game salad. Game development isn't a skill or an art anymore but a quick ticket for the lotto.

The_Gamesalad_Guru

I was stating our view of how we work. I was not saying others should do what we do. Our artistic expression for puck it came through the play by play work and our character pucky. The quirky humor was our personalities embeded and expressed through our game. If you simply look at the gameplay as the expression you're missing the spirit of the game. It's the vibe and attitude the game expressed that we put our mark on it. If you see it as paint and canvas then yeah it's paint and canvas. You have to look past that to catch the vibe of it. Check out our facebook and see shots of Steel Beach which is another one we have in development and Atom Smash. Yes both @RP and i have great paying careers we enjoy and we have the luxury of doing what we want and not concern ourselves with trends. There is a lot of ourselves in our games and like art you have to peer into the work to see it. Like other forms of creative expression, some jive with it others won't and we're good with that.

pHghost

Obviously, if you are making games as a secondary endeavor and have another day job that keeps you (and your family) fed, any market research like this will be unimportant to you, since you just make games you love and don't worry whether they will sell a lot or just a little.

What this talks about I think is this dream of the big hit that will propel you forward and make you into a big-selling developer, and that it will become less and less likely as the app market matures, and you'll need to start building your foundation on better, more solid games.

If you want this to become a full-time job, it unfortunately isn't simply only about devotion.

The_Gamesalad_Guru

Even if i was doing this as a career i would appy the same philosophy. It's the same mindset Disney had as well as Jobs and john Lassiter over at Pixar. The reason those guys reached great hights is because they dared to do their own thing when most studios chose the copy and market driven strategy. It all depends on how you define yourself and why one does what they do. As Job's so famously said "people don't know what they want until you give it to them." This holds true in any art form, music movies, et. For example you have the Beatles and the Monkeys. One a lsd tripping band the other a product of the industry. Both had sucess but one are legends who definded an industry.

RP

I'm actually getting some good chuckles going through this. Not to sound like a pooh-head, but to make a point: My day-job office is on Sunset blvd. Great view too. I get to see the sun set over the palm trees everyday. We make software! Oh!, and what do I do when I'm free? I have my own independent gig, which includes games (almost mostly) and then, I have my partnership gig with the Guru.

I make money from both. It works and I'm having a good time doing it. I'm not sure why there is this little arrogant prejudice going around that if someone is not independently making games 100% of the time, then they or their work are not full indie. There is a logical fallacy here. Is that like cool or something?

I know how to run a business, which I still do in conjunction with my other job. So, I'm kinda perplexed by this mindset. Now if you want to be a big indie-studio that only puts out games, cool. I don't. At least not right now. I'm very content with what have got going right now and it's only getting better.

@Tiny_Ideas Thanks for that, I'm not sure how Puck it rips off air hockey, but I do know that Pucky wants you to suck an egg!

pHghost

@RP said:
Now if you want to be a big indie-studio that only puts out games, cool. I don't. At least not right now. I'm very content with what have got going right now and it's only getting better.

I really do wonder how it came down to this point. The article I posted has absolutely nothing to do with being an indie developer. Basically it is about the fallacy of chasing the dream of the one big hit propelling you to the stratosphere of game-making. Which is what a lot of newcomers are trying to achieve (almost like the modern equivalent of the American Dream), whether they are indie or not.

What is important is consistency. @The_Gamesalad_Guru‌ -- Jobs, Lasseter, Beatles, produced several good products, they were consistent in the delivery of quality entertainment. If they made just one single great song or film or device, and then loads of terrible ones, they wouldn't be the pioneers we know them to be.

The article doesn't say what things do sell, and what you should make (did you even read it?). Articles that do that are obviously speculation riding on trends that will fade.

This is a warning not to think the world will be yours if you end up with a hit on your hands. If you don't follow it up with more good stuff, you will slip into oblivion.

I couldn't care less about how indie someone is. Sometimes (well, quite often, frankly) indies make games that are cr*p. The fact that they are indie doesn't make the game any better.

Lovejoy

I think i might of stirred the pot a little bit when i responded to @The_Gamesalad_Guru‌ post.

The_Gamesalad_Guru

If you read my original post that's what i said. We actually agree. I firmly believe in the long strategy of making solid stuff. Which was my point for us we don't strive to make a one shot wonder. We have a long strategy for a progression of work. @RP and i laided out an 8 year plan and we're working that plan, which is why we don't follow the charts. I agree totally with your point. It was others who made the counter point.

RP

@pHghost Odd, I though thought the App Bubble was composed mostly of independent developers and largest portion of those apps (revenue wise) being games.

I'm sorry I think I misread / falsely read-into your previous post (I was not fully awake, I blame having no coffee). Was not trying to be di*k. The article is more or less why I don't put all my eggs in one basket and why it is important to be a a Jack (or Jill) of all trades and learn to wear many hats in your work place or your own business.

As far as the App bubble goes, yeah it's kinda like a fizzy drink. You can shake it to get more bubbles. It will go flat eventually. Just make sure you grab a fresh one (the next thing/iteration etc.).

RP

@The_Gamesalad_Guru Long term planing and forecasting. Also why I said "not right now". It also has a lot to do with that article (which is just a reiteration of many).

pHghost

Yup, we're in agreement.

Lovejoy

Group hug anyone?

RP

Hugasaurus Rex Go!

BBEnk

I think the Cinderella stories help fuel a lot of this, everyone wants in but learn it's not easy.

pHghost

Accept my offering of peace, boss!

The_Gamesalad_Guru

I feel all warm and fuzzy. Oops false alarm, I farted.